A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
